Heat and Winter

September 8, 2015

123243-5778393-6Bright sunshine and warm air this Tuesday morning on California’s north coast — we’re supposedly in for a warm streak again this week with temps maybe up in the low-70s here at the coast, 20-degrees higher within interior valleys.
All considered above normal heat for this time of year — worse down south just a bit (SFGate): ‘A searing furnace blast Tuesday will push temperatures into the upper 90s in San Francisco and the triple digits around the Bay Area, prompting the National Weather Service to issue a heat advisory.’
In some places, as much as ’20-degrees’ above seasonal averages, an odd effect for the Bay Area.

Hopefully, the heat won’t dry us out any more than we are already — a state in the throes of a four-year drought, yet saving water better and better.

(Illustration found here).

Even with a probable influence of a “super El Niño” this winter, (maybe already here), Californians seemed to have found a handle on saving water — a 27 percent reduction in June, 31 percent in July, and along with even a new twist to the state’s view of the precious.
Yesterday, from the LA Times:

In the last quarter century or so, a “soft path” to energy reliability — one built on conservation, innovation and mutual incentives for buyers and sellers alike — has replaced the brute strategy of building all the generation plants needed to power all of the state all of the time.
Advocates for a comparable approach regarding water envision a mix of heightened consumer awareness, especially when it comes to landscaping options, as well as increased efficiencies in homes, industry and agriculture.
They also point to better reuse of water through groundwater reclamation, recycling and rainwater capture, and a reformulation of a financial model so that water agencies are not forced to charge more when their customers use less.
“The reality is that there are so many soft paths that we can take that might have a lot less environmental impact and be a lot less expensive, and still meet our future demand,” said Newsha Ajami, director of urban water policy for Stanford’s Water in the West initiative.
“This is probably a smarter tack than building more infrastructure, and moving more water around long distances.”

No shit.
And with a special fall/winter season with the warm coming from the Pacific — via the Weather Network on Sunday and climate up-comings:

However, when the warmest water is shifted west towards the Central Pacific, the winters over the eastern half of the US typically turn significantly colder compared to what we expect with a classic El Niño.
As we progress through the fall we will track changes in the ocean-water temperature pattern, but there are signs that warmest water will be found closer to the Central Pacific and not just off the coast of South America.
Another key to upcoming winter is whether El Niño peaks later this fall and then starts to weaken as we progress through the winter or whether it continues to strengthen during the winter.
A strengthening El Niño rather than a weakening El Niño during the heart of winter would likely mean a milder winter for the Northeastern States.

Heat and rain and water and what…?

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