Rain ‘Belt’ Riding

November 15, 2015

jpeg-26Rain this Sunday morning, followed by more rain, then sunshine for a few seconds, quickly-swallowed by darkness and a drenching.
Strongest storm so far this year — pretty heavy-sounding during the night, stroked by a clattering wind, prompting an earlier NWS ‘wind advisory.’

And another seasonal-overall advisory, too, with emphasis (LA Times):

“It’s official. El Niño’s here. It’s a done deal,” said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.
“So at this point, we’re just waiting for the impacts in California.”
Generally, El Niño doesn’t peak in California until January, February and March, Patzert said.
That’s when Californians should expect “mudslides, heavy rainfall, one storm after another like a conveyor belt.”

(Illustration found here).

The climatologist continued: ‘“January and February are just around the corner. If you think you should make preparations, get off the couch and do it now. These storms are imminent,” he said. “El Niño is here. And it is huge.”

Our storm episode could supposedly have dropped nearly an inch of rain since yesterday, maybe more, and indeed a weather-conveyor belt will slide another rain front onto us sometime the middle of next week — if not sooner. One positive personal-biological aspect is generally rainy weather carries warmer temperatures — tomorrow morning, for instance, is forecast to be down again near freezing, revealing a rain-lull in the system, then start warming again Monday afternoon as the next front builds.
Couple on an El Niño, and maybe a warm winter.

And for the US, generally — from science writer Bob Henson at WunderBlog on Friday:

If you’re looking for an old-fashioned holiday, you may be out of luck across large parts of the U.S. and Canada, at least when it comes to December cold.
El Niño climatology and seasonal forecast models are pointing toward high odds of a very mild December across most of the continent east of the Rockies and north of the Deep South.
We wouldn’t expect every day to be unusually balmy — and in December, “warmer than average” can still be quite chilly — but the analogue years and the model forecasts do raise the possibility of at least a few days of record-melting weather across a vast area.

NOAA’s Climate Forecast System model (CFSv2) has been singing a consistent tune over the last few days, and it doesn’t sound like your typical holiday song.
For more than a week, daily runs of the CFSv2 have called for an unusually mild December across nearly all of North America, with the possible exception of Texas, Mexico, and Alaska.
“With such persistence in the CFS, I don’t see much room for deviation from this forecast,” says WSI’s Michael Ventrice, who adds that the ECMWF seasonal model paints a similar picture.
Overall, says Ventrice, this is “some of the most anomalous warmth I’ve ever seen” in monthly model output.

Yes, that ‘warmer than average,’ can still be cold as shit, at least for an old, skinny guy.
Sunshine right now with a gap apparently in the rain clouds, and nice for awhile anyway…

Anticipation alarms are being triggered, though.

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