Electric Rain

February 7, 2014

painting01_081022_sshRain this early Friday on California’s north coast, and a storm that might put a small dent on our horrific drought — nearly 5 inches of rain expected, and bigger rainfall coming for the weekend.

And with the noted “pineapple express” — temperatures warm and near-balmy are forecast for the region. Meteorologist Dr. Jeff Masters: Some locations may see more rain in a four-day period than they have had during the previous eight months.

(Illustration found here).

Masters tampers the enthusiasm, however:

But the state is in such a deep precipitation hole that it needs at least six more events like this over the next two months to pull them out of drought.
Between January 1, 2013 and February 5, 2014, the San Francisco Airport received just 4.24 inches of rain, which is 21.19 inches below normal for the period—by far the driest such period in their history.
The last time San Francisco had more than 1 inches of rain was Christmas Day, 2012.
Thursday’s new Drought Monitor product showed that drought conditions in the state had remained almost the same as the previous week, with 94 percent of the state in drought, and a slight expansion of the area in the worst category of drought — exceptional — from 9 percent to 10 percent.

Along with the moniker, “pineapple express,” this type system is also known as an “atmospheric river,” which has a great impact on California’s rainfall totals and if allowed to continue, could have a marvelous effect on our drought.
Masters doesn’t think so this time: “I don’t see that happening this month, though. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model shows the state returning to relatively dry conditions beginning on Monday, with a ridge of high pressure dominating the weather for the remainder of the week.”
Well, enjoy while it pours.

Meanwhile, the 2014 Olympics starts officially starts today in Sochi, Russia, though, some events were held on Thursday. The horror stories, hopefully, will occur on the playing field and not elsewhere.
Also yesterday, a look at a possible nightmare scenario with California’s electrical-power grid. Last April, an electric substation near San Jose was nearly knocked off-line by gunfire, an event which almost ended power to Silicon Valley — a big, big deal. Pacific Gas & Electric, however, downplayed the act as vandalism.
Not so fast — now it seems, the attack was terrorism.
From the LA Times:

Jon Wellinghoff, who was chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission when the shooting took place, said that attack was clearly executed by well-trained individuals seeking to do significant damage to the area, and he fears it was a test run for an even larger assault.
“It would not be that hard to bring down the entire region west of the Rockies if you, in fact, had a coordinated attack like this against a number of substations,” Wellinghoff said Thursday. “This [shooting] event shows there are people out there capable of such an attack.”
Wellinghoff’s warning about the incident at PG&E’s Metcalf substation was reported this week by the Wall Street Journal, expanding on a December report by Foreign Policy magazine.
FBI officials said they are taking the shooting very seriously.
“Based on the information we have right now, we don’t believe it’s related to terrorism,” said Peter Lee, an FBI spokesman in San Francisco.
But, he added, “Until we understand the motives, we won’t be 100% sure it’s not terrorism.”

“We’ve got a vulnerability and we’ve got to get serious about fixing it,” said Granger Morgan, who heads the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University.
“Almost everything we do in modern society relies on electricity.”
A National Research Council committee he chaired issued a 2007 report warning how easy it would be for a criminal enterprise to knock out the power grid in a way that “could deny large regions of the country access to bulk power systems for weeks or even months,” leading to “turmoil, widespread public fear and an image of helplessness that would play directly into the hands of terrorists.”
The classified report was completed in 2007 and became public two years ago.
Asked what has happened since then to protect the nation’s electricity system, Morgan replied that very little has been done.
The attack on the PG&E facility targeted the sophisticated transformers that are at the backbone of the nation’s electricity grid.
The giant pieces of equipment are essential, costly and could take months to replace.
Knock out enough of them, experts warn, and an entire region can be crippled for an extended period.
They are also typically out in the open like sitting ducks.
On that April night, the attackers managed to disable 17 of them just by shooting through a chain-link fence.
The bullet holes caused the transformers to leak thousands of gallons of oil, and ultimately overheat.
Grid operators scrambled to reroute power from elsewhere to keep the system from collapse.
The power stayed on, but just barely, because it happened during a time when demand for electricity was very low.

The bullet holes were carefully targeted so as not to hit the parts of the equipment that would cause an explosion and attract the attention of drivers on nearby U.S. 101.
Of some 120 shots fired from at least 40 yards outside the fence, 110 of them hit transformers, Wellinghoff said.
“A dress rehearsal” is how Mark Johnson, a retired vice president at PG&E, described the event to a Philadelphia gathering of electricity industry officials in November.
Johnson said the attackers opened two 75-pound manhole covers and used a ladder to cut fiber-optic lines, a possible attempt to disconnect security cameras.
They fired for seven minutes, targeting radiators on the banks of transformers.
“This wasn’t an incident where Billy-Bob and Joe decided after a bunch of brewskis they were going to shoot up a substation,” he said.
“When you look at this event and how calculated, how well organized and how well thought out it was, it clearly indicates that a chain-link fence was not enough to secure a substation.”

Now, talk about some bad, bad shit.
Even weather will f-ck the grid, as witnessed right now on the US east coast as winter storms of snow, sleet and ice have nearly 500,000 people without power in some regions out there.
Modern life lives on electrical power, if it goes, what’s next…

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