Clear, sunshine-filled skies this Sunday morning on California’s north coast — but no rain in sight for the rest of this year, and not much predicted for 2014, either.

Walking-the-dog environment: “Increased heating from global warming may not cause droughts but it is expected that when droughts occur they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense.”
Some rain is needed first, though, huh?

(Illustration found here).

We’re forecast here on the Lost Coast for some rain at the end of next week or so, but if the precipitation is anything like what’s been happening this year, it’ll be just a light-rain, or even a deep-mist. Water hasn’t been a problem for us, but just south of where I am, down in Mendocino County, the shit has hit the drought fan. California as a whole enchilada is expecting an ugly dry period ahead.

Case in point is the town of Willits, California, about three hours, maybe less, south on twisty-windy, most-times two-lane US 101, through the Redwood Curtain to the heart of Mendocino — from the Willits News on Christmas Eve:

With the anticipated declaration of a phase three emergency, each household will be limited to a maximum water usage of 250 gallons per day or 10 units per month.
Commercial customers face a mandatory 15 percent cut compared with the prior year usage.
While these limits are in place certain actions considered wasteful are prohibited, these include washing sidewalks and other hard surfaces, washing vehicles of all types and refilling swimming pools, hot tubs or spas.
An acre foot is the water needed to cover one acre with one foot of water or 325,851 gallons.
In 2012 city residents used 865 acre feet of water, according to reports filed by the city with the California Department of Water Resources.
Willits declared a phase two water emergency on Nov. 18 when the city asked water customers to cut back voluntarily on their usage.
Between Oct. 1 and Dec. 23 the Willits area has received only 2.88 inches of rain.
Last year during the same period the area received 31.04 inches.
The normal rainfall during this period is 17.5 inches.

And from the Santa Rosa Press Democrat earlier this month: The city of Willits has about 100 days worth of water left in its two reservoirs, officials said. One is at about half capacity — 345 acre feet — while the other, with 48.4 acre feet, is almost out of usable water, officials said. An acre foot contains 325,851 gallons.

A big chunk of Mendocino and Lake counties, the direct neighbor to the south, get water from Lake Mendocino — via from the Ukiah Daily Journal on Friday (Ukiah is further south of Wllits on the 101, the Mendocino County seat): As a result of the “severely low rainfall,” the water supply level in Lake Mendocino was only 28,457 acre-feet on Dec. 18, which is considered “critical.”
Hence, the rationing of water, or else: It’s either that or “send out a (request for proposal) for a rain dance,” said Willits City Councilman Bruce Burton.

Meanwhile, statewide, 2013 started out dry, and then got drier still. New Year’s Day will see the driest year in California’s history (via NBC News): “It’s really dry,” said JPL’s renowned climatologist Bill Patzert, also known for his turn of a phrase. “As dry as a box of popcorn in the desert.”
And why:

Meteorologists attribute the current heat wave to a strong, northern jetstream, and lingering high pressure over the great basin.
But climate scientists see the impact of a much larger and more long-lasting pattern known as
the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
This longterm fluctuation of Pacific Ocean water surface temperature is believed to cause cyclical changes in climate, Patzert said.
In the Southwest, the 1980s and 1990s were marked by numerous wet, “El Niño” winters, during which the Central Pacific is warmer than usual.

The US Drought Monitor reports 94 percent of the state experienced some part of drought conditions this year. Adding to water woes, how about forest fires?

Fire season for the area usually dies down after the middle of fall, when rain is more common for the region.
December kicks off the wet season for the year, as monthly precipitation totals build through March.
This year, however, could mark an exception to the norm.
“It will remain dry through February and probably early March in California,” AccuWeather.com Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
“It’s possible that a system or two could reach the state, but not enough to put a dent in the drought.”

More fires, less water, and a disappearing of the fabled desert tortoise, found in southern California’s Joshua Tree National Park, all part-n-parcel for climate change’s version of a drought (LA Times):

“The last time the climate of the Earth jumped as rapidly as it seems to be now was about 55 million years ago — and that was a five-degree increase over thousands of years,” Jeff Lovich, lead researcher of the USGS team, said in an interview.
“The changes we are seeing now are virtually unprecedented, and they are occurring in a desert landscape fragmented by development and roads.”
“The desert tortoise is surviving in the current landscape by its toenails,” he said.
“Although the animal’s name suggests that it is well adapted to desert conditions, it is not,” Lovich said.
“Prior to 7,000 to 10,000 years ago, the region was cooler and wetter with lakes fringed with Joshua trees and junipers. That’s the landscape that dominated the evolutionary history of the so-called desert tortoise.”
“It probably evolved its burrowing trait to escape predators,” he said.
“Later, burrows became a critical means of escaping the climate extremes.”
“So, this animal has ‘accepted’ — not adapted to — desert conditions,” he said.
“Our study shows that its survival can be seriously compromised after two to three years of drought.”

This year is the third dry one in a row.
We’re now in the age of the Kobe Bryant dry suck: It’s disgusting, but my father taught me when your mouth gets dry, just suck the sweat out of your own jersey. There’s no bravado to any of it; it’s just a disgusting little trick.

Not like popcorn at all.