Despite the T-Rump’s cold-hearted lackeys attempt to fuck the country via SCOTUS, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to surge, and here in California it’s boiling — where I live in the Central Valley we’re running out of ICU beds, and even social-distancing space.
Although the stay-at-home order continues due to the mass of new cases, restrictions are economically stunning as per last spring (h/t BJ):
California health officials are urging the state’s residents to stay home as much as possible because of a coronavirus surge taxing the state’s hospitals. But the most recent stay-at-home order allows Californians to do many more activities than in March. https://t.co/DBlpqPBNO6
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 11, 2020
Here in Merced County, we’re getting more-fucked by the day — according to the county health department‘s update e-mail thingie yesterday afternoon: ‘As of 3:30 p.m. Thursday, December 10, 2020, there are 14,310 confirmed cases (+252 from Wednesday) of COVID-19 (novel coronavirus) in Merced County. Approximately 2,643 of those cases are active, and 202 have died. Current Risk Tier: Purple (Widespread). Many non-essential indoor business operations are closed.‘
From the Merced Sun-Star, also yesterday afternoon:
While Merced County hospital capacity remained relatively stable Thursday, according to the most recent local and state data, the situation in the San Joaquin Valley overall grew more dire.
Since Gov. Gavin Newsom rolled out the newest set of regional economic restrictions to prevent overwhelming hospitals, the San Joaquin Valley has consistently shown the most strain.
Intensive care unit capacity in the 12-county region, including Merced County, dropped to just 1.9-percent on Thursday. That’s down from 4.2-percent the day before.
Comparatively, Southern California has 7.7-percent of ICUs available and the Greater Sacramento area has 13.3-percent free.
Any region with less than 15-percent overall ICU availability is subject to the regional stay-at-home orders, which shutter wineries and bars, shut down all in-person dining at restaurants and impact several other economic sectors.
The measures are in place for at least three weeks from the day they’re triggered.
Most-likely the order will last longer. Mainly because the virus is spreading — doing arithmetic:
In fact, four weeks ago, the case count stood at about 8,000.
What that means is, while deaths are at an all time high, they are likely to go much, much higher in the next few weeks.
To what extent, is at this point unclear, but for months Los Angeles County Director of Health and Human Services Dr. Christina Ghaly has laid out the following equation, which has proven reliable: Ghaly has that about 12-percent of all coronavirus cases end up in the hospital.
“Half of those end up in ICU,” she said in November.
“Two-thirds of those are on a ventilator. Half of those will die, based on previous experience.”Doing the math, that means 3,561 of the 29,677 infections reported on Thursday will end up in a hospital.
Of those, 1,780 will require ICU care. Some 1,175 of those ICU patients will require a ventilator.
That means 587 people will die as a result of Thursday’s single-day new numbers.
Here we are on a deadly sit and slide…
In a more-grim synopsis from The Washington Post this morning explains how the virus transfers itself — use of a military-grade infrared camera capable of detecting exhaled breath. Read the whole piece, way-scary and interesting at the same time. A snip:
The highly sensitive camera system detects variations in infrared radiation that are not visible to the naked eye.
The technology is more typically used in military and industrial settings, such as detecting methane gas leaks in pipelines.
In 2013, it was deployed by law enforcement during the 20-hour manhunt for the Boston Marathon bombers.But fitted with a filter that specifically targets the infrared signature of carbon dioxide, the camera can be used to map in real time the partial path of the nearly invisible particles we exhale.
According to experts, the footage underrepresents the potential risk of exposure from airborne particles.
Those particles may spread farther or linger longer than the visible exhalation plume, which dissipates quickly to a level of concentration the camera can no longer detect.
In other more serious words: Wear a fucking mask!
(Illustration: New Yorker cartoon by Bruce Eric Kaplan, found here).