Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water:
4PM CDT Oct 5: Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to strengthen quickly and bring the risk of life-threatening impacts to portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday or Wednesday. Make sure to check back for updates through the weekend and into next week at… pic.twitter.com/ODXkMcuLAz
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 5, 2024
Details nutshell via the Guardian this afternoon:
The latest system, Tropical Storm Milton, formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Forecasters expect the storm to quickly strengthen into a hurricane and rush toward Florida in the next few days.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Florida said Milton, which could become a hurricane on Monday, is expected to bring surge and high winds to the recovering west coast and serious flood risks to south and central Florida.
Jamie Rhome, the deputy director of the NHC in Miami, said Milton could develop into a “potentially very impactful hurricane” and hit Florida’s Gulf coast on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Milton is expected to pack maximum sustained winds of 110mph when it makes landfall near St Petersburg and Tampa as a category 2 to category 3 hurricane, Rhome said. Category 3 and above are considered “major” hurricanes.
On Saturday afternoon, Milton was about 220 miles (354km) north/north-east of Veracruz, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 40mph and expected to quickly move east/north-east across the Gulf of Mexico.
“Regardless of where the storm tracks, it’s going to produce a large area of heavy rain and potential flooding,” Rhome said.
“Even if this doesn’t realize a high-end wind core, it will have the potential for significant surge inundation,” Andrew Moore, a meteorologist for Arch Reinsurance, wrote on X.
A major factor in predicting Milton’s increasing strength is that surface sea temperatures, or SST’s, did not cool off after Helene passed over and remain significantly above normal.
Plenty of ‘fuel‘ for Milton seemingly available:
One downside of #Helene's fast track across the Gulf is it really didn't leave a lasting cold wake. Most of the Gulf is above average SST still, and the loop current is prominent. Shelf south of Tampa is extremely warm as well. Lots of potential fuel if shear is low enough to let… pic.twitter.com/XCwghdjPyJ
— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) October 5, 2024
Hazelton is an associate scientist with the hurricane research department at NOAA.
Fox Weather meteorologist Bryan Norcross noted Milton’s quickening impact: ‘“I don’t like the way this is developing at all, and it’s going to happen pretty quickly … It just means the odds are significantly higher [Saturday] than they were [Friday] that a memorable, impactful storm is going to impact Florida in the days ahead.”‘
Climate change is shitting the environment. T-Rump and his running cellmate, JD Vance, are denying the heat and lying about everything that’s associated with it, bullshitting even on federal Helene relief, despite even Republican governors/senators telling Joe Biden/Kamala Harris, thank you for doing a good job.
And in hopefully intended good fun pre-hurricane, speaking of Milton (h/t Balloon Juice):
Reality is a Cat 3 hurricane, or not, yet here we are once again…
