(Illustration found here).
Despite a shitload of all kinds of nefarious events gripping like a snapping turtle at the brain, climate change continues to look like a horror story coming alive, as I’d bemoaned before, we’re watching the end of the world on our laptops.
COP26, now in its second week in Glasgow, Scotland, has been pretty-much a wash, and that wash being obvious:
“We shouldn’t be blinded by long-term promises,” said Joeri Rogelj, director of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London and a lead author of the updated Emissions Gap report.
“If you want to achieve net zero goals in the long term, your near-term pledges have to put you on track to deliver them,” he added.
“Otherwise, there is low confidence they will ever be achieved.”
Horribly, ‘low confidence’ seems to be built into the system — the numbers tell the tale:
CAT global update: Glasgow has a credibility gap between talk and action. If all govts met their 2030 targets, we would have 2.4?C of warming in 2100. But right now, current policies put us at 2.7?C. https://t.co/dkX4jAbo2f
A Thread ? pic.twitter.com/EdLlIfdhXt— ClimateActionTracker (@climateactiontr) November 9, 2021
In the last few weeks, a shitload of studies/research on our warming world indicates we’re just on the outskirts of Shitsville and on a projection to be downtown Shitsville sooner than we figured — from the Guardian this morning:
The world is on track for disastrous levels of global heating far in excess of the limits in the Paris climate agreement, despite a flurry of carbon-cutting pledges from governments at the UN Cop26 summit.
Temperature rises will top 2.4C by the end of this century, based on the short-term goals countries have set out, according to research published in Glasgow on Tuesday.
That would far exceed the 2C upper limit the Paris accord said the world needed to stay “well below”, and the much safer 1.5C limit aimed for at the Cop26 talks.
At that level, widespread extreme weather — sea-level rises, drought, floods, heatwaves and fiercer storms — would cause devastation across the globe.The estimate stands in sharp contrast to optimistic forecasts published last week that suggested heating could be held to 1.9C or 1.8C, thanks to commitments announced at the talks, now in their second week and scheduled to end this weekend.
Those estimates were based on long-term goals set out by countries including India, the world’s third-biggest emitter, which is aiming for net zero emissions by 2070.By contrast, the sobering assessment of a rise of 2.4C from Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the world’s most respected climate analysis coalition, was based on countries’ short-term goals for the next decade.
Bill Hare, the chief executive of Climate Analytics, one of the organisations behind CAT, told the Guardian: “We are concerned that some countries are trying to portray [Cop26] as if the 1.5C limit is nearly in the bag. But it’s not, it’s very far from it, and they are downplaying the need to get short-term targets for 2030 in line with 1.5C.”Emissions will be twice as high in 2030 as they need to be to stay within 1.5C, based on promises made in Glasgow, CAT found.
Scientists have warned that beyond 1.5C, some of the damage to the Earth’s climate will become irreversible.
Hard to think straight with this shit.
Further blunt talk from Bill Hare (via CNN): ‘“It’s all very well for leaders to claim they have a net zero target, but if they have no plans as to how to get there, and their 2030 targets are as low as so many of them are, then frankly, these net zero targets are just lip service to real climate action … Glasgow has a serious credibility gap.”‘
Not a high note to end, but what the shit.
An example of maybe what’s termed “abrupt climate change,” but CGI in place of the real screaming and running and drowning:
Once again, here we are…
(Illustration out front: Salvador Dali’s ‘Tête Raphaëlesque éclatée [Exploding Raphaelesque Head],’ found here)